Blog
Guides, strategies, and analysis for weather prediction market trading.
What Are Weather Prediction Markets? A Complete Guide
Learn how weather prediction markets work on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Understand contracts, pricing, and how traders profit from weather forecasts.
GFS vs ECMWF: Which Weather Model Is More Accurate?
A data-driven comparison of GFS and ECMWF forecast accuracy for temperature, precipitation, and severe weather. Updated with 2026 verification data.
How to Find Mispriced Weather Contracts on Kalshi
A step-by-step strategy for identifying mispriced weather prediction contracts using forecast model consensus and historical bias data.
Weather Prediction Market Glossary: Every Term You Need to Know
Complete glossary of weather prediction market terms including edge, consensus, model bias, MAE, RMSE, ensemble spread, and more.
Building Your First Weather Trading Strategy
How to build a systematic weather prediction market trading strategy using forecast model consensus, paper trading, and bankroll management.